The Complex Relationship and Looming Crisis Between Our Thirst For Water and Our Hunger for Energy
July 28th, 2013
Via Climate Progress, an interesting article on the impact of water scarcity on European power prices:
Many European countries could see a decrease in electricity generating capacity and an increase in electricity prices thanks to climate change. That’s the overall finding from a new studyout of the Austria-based International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which looked at how higher water temperatures and reduced river flows could affect hydropower plants, as well as the nuclear and fossil fuel power plants that draw off much of that water for cooling.
As of now, 91 percent of Europe’s electricity is produced from those three sources, and nuclear and fossil fuel plants are the continents single biggest consumer of water — accounting for 43 percent of all surface water withdrawal. Given that reliance, it’s an open question how well the power industry can continue to function in climate changes’ new realities.
The researchers focused on 29 European countries, developing a model of river flow and water temperatures using observed data from 1971 to 2000. They then plugged in the projected climate changes produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That gave them projections for European river flows and water temperatures for 2031 to 2060. Using other projections of future capacity, cost, and demand from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, they then looked at how those changes would affect energy production from hydropower plants, nuclear plants, and fossil fuel plants.
The conclusion is that over half of the countries studied will see some amount of price increase, with the big hits in the summer, and mainly for central and southern Europe. Slovenia saw an 12 to 15 percent increase in the model; Bulgaria a 21 to 23 percent increase; and Romania a 31 to 32 percent increase. Countries like Ireland, Denmark, and the U.K. will escaped unscathed, and Norway and Sweden actually saw a price drop. But for the most part, a hike in costs would be the order of the day:
The numbers on each country in the map above show the change in mean wholesale prices, while the breakdowns for select countries show changes in prices, electricity production, and supplier surplus. The A2 scenario is the medium-high emissions path projected by the IPCC, and B1 is the low emissions path. (Credit: Michelle van Vliet, et al)
To explain, climate change threatens to reduce river flows, aquifers, and other sources of fresh water thanks to melting glaciers and less reliable rainfall. As a result, the study found a decrease in river flow of 13 to 15 percent for Southern Europe in the 2031-2060 time period (relative to 1971-2000) while places like Spain, Italy and Greece dropped as much as 20 percent. That was offset by an increase of 3 to 5 percent in river flow for Northern Europe. Water temperature increases, again thanks to global warming, were much more evenly distributed, usually around 0.6 to 0.8 degrees Celsius — though some central European areas got over one degree Celsius.
Breaking down the effects on power generation, northern countries — Norway, Sweden, etc. — saw an overall increase of 8 percent for hydropower capacities, while southern countries — Greece, France, Spain, Bulgaria, Serbia, etc. — saw an overall decrease of 15 percent. For the continent as a whole, it’s a decrease of 4 to 5 percent. For nuclear and fossil fuel power plants, around half of Europe looks like it’ll escape essentially unscathed, especially the north. But reductions ranged from 5 percent all the way to 21 percent in other areas, with the the biggest reductions in some southern European countries. The hits were, again, substantially worse in the summer. But the study also determined that adapting with better cooling technology and more advanced fuels could take a lot of the edge off.
Widening the view to the global level, a study released in January by The International Energy Agency concluded that annual water consumption for energy production will likely double by 2035 — from 66 billion cubic meters now to 135 billion. And along with climate change, population growth will also be straining water supplies: the United Nations projects that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will live in regions with severe water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water-stressed conditions. So there will be less available fresh water for human consumption, plus strained and costlier energy supplies. Europe is just one corner of the global challenge.
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Educated at Yale University (Bachelor of Arts - History) and Harvard (Master in Public Policy - International Development), Monty Simus has held a lifelong interest in environmental and conservation issues, primarily as they relate to freshwater scarcity, renewable energy, and national park policy. Working from a water-scarce base in Las Vegas with his wife and son, he is the founder of Water Politics, an organization dedicated to the identification and analysis of geopolitical water issues arising from the world’s growing and vast water deficits, and is also a co-founder of SmartMarkets, an eco-preneurial venture that applies web 2.0 technology and online social networking innovations to motivate energy & water conservation. He previously worked for an independent power producer in Central Asia; co-authored an article appearing in the Summer 2010 issue of the Tulane Environmental Law Journal, titled: “The Water Ethic: The Inexorable Birth Of A Certain Alienable Right”; and authored an article appearing in the inaugural issue of Johns Hopkins University's Global Water Magazine in July 2010 titled: “H2Own: The Water Ethic and an Equitable Market for the Exchange of Individual Water Efficiency Credits.”